The benefits derived from addressing climate change will be greater in so much as efforts are undertaken in a timely and ambitious manner, with initiatives that are integrated, multidisciplinary and able to focus on long-term horizons.
The latest IPCC Special Report delivers a crystal-clear and direct message, bringing together more than 100 scientists and experts from all over the world to assess the latest scientific knowledge on the ocean, cryosphere and climate change.
The Report, of which details and in-depth analyses are also available in Italian on the IPCC Focal Point for Italy website (including the Italian press statement, questions & answers on the main issues addressed in the report, videos, data and much more), focuses on the ocean and ice covered areas of our planet and their relationship with climate change. This relationship plays a critical role not only for the people living in direct contact with these areas (a total of 670 million people live in high mountain regions; 680 million people live in low-lying coastal zones; 4 million people live permanently in the Arctic region; and small island developing states are home to 65 million people), but also for the equilibrium of oceans and coastal ecosystems, the availability of water resources, for extreme events, food security and several productive and cultural sectors.
Impacts and solutions
“The message of this report is very clear: the Earth is heating up and this is causing undeniable impacts on the cryosphere, which is gradually shrinking, and on the ocean, which is warming up much faster than in the past and therefore leading to sea level rise”, says Dorotea Iovino, researcher at the CMCC Foundation where she coordinates the “Ocean and Sea Ice Modelling” group.
“Scenarios show that the ocean is projected to continue warming and sea level is projected to rise throughout the 21st century; increasing ocean acidification, oxygen loss and intensified marine heatwaves are also expected”, comments Simona Masina, Director of the CMCC ODA – Ocean Modelling and Data Assimilation Division, whose scientific interests focus on the understanding of the ocean’s role in the global climate system.
“In the absence of adaptation strategies and measures, risks of flooding and extreme events for coastal communities, negative impacts on marine biodiversity and fish stocks, and more in general negative impacts on marine resources are projected to significantly increase while negatively affecting food security, tourism, the economy and health.”
The ocean, cryosphere and human societies
“This report is crucial for understanding ongoing climate change and its evolution under different climate scenarios”, highlights Carlo Barbante, Prof. at Ca’Foscari University in Venice and researcher at the ISP (Institute of Polar Sciences) – CNR. “In particular, this IPCC report helps us appreciate the strong relationship between different environmental compartments, such as the ocean and cryosphere, and human activities. A connection starting from polar ice melting, resulting in sea level rise, and ending with potentially serious consequences for more than 680 million people.”
“The report – Barbante adds – highlights the concerning state of glaciers, not only at the poles, but also at lower latitudes; glaciers are projected to lose more than 80% of their current ice mass by 2100. Snow cover could decline by 90% during the period from 2081 to 2100. In the case of global warming of more than 2°C, consequences will range from changes in fresh water availability and quality, to negative effects on recreational activities and tourism.”
The challenge of marine and coastal ecosystems
One of the key aspects highlighted in the Report concerns how the impacts of global warming will cause radical changes to living conditions on our planet. This has been elaborated on by Momme Butenschön,researcher in the field of ocean science and head of the Earth system modelling research unit at CMCC: “Rising temperatures put some species at risk of extinction, especially where there are topographical limits, while forcing other species to migrate towards cold areas and higher latitudes, thus changing the ecosystem distribution on a global scale. Moreover, global warming and ocean acidification result inpressures and stresses on calcifying organisms such as corals, barnacles and mussels while altering their metabolism and stopping the regeneration of their calcium carbonate components”, adds Butenschön.
“The combined effect of these factors is already causing a reduction of biodiversity that increases the vulnerability of ecosystems while limiting their productivity and resilience. This is resulting in profound consequences for human beings and human communities, especially for those living in coastal areas. Loss of coastal areas caused by sea level rise and loss of ecosystems that contribute to their protection, decrease in seafood availability, degradation and destruction of ecosystems that deprive us of areas for tourism and recreational activities. These are just some of the climate change impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems and consequences for people’s life. Moreover, we must not forget to mention the indirect impacts of climate change, e.g. the potential increase in conflicts, migrations, and a growing gap between the rich and the poor due to the fact that developed countries have a greater capacity for adaptation”, Butenschön concludes.
Main solutions: stopping the warming of the planet and adapting
All experts agree that the search for effective solutions requires an integrated and innovative approach. “To address these and other problems linked to climate change – Carlo Barbante explains – we should go beyond the fragmentation and short-term vision of policy initiatives to design longer-term integrated monitoring and protection systems for ecosystems.”
“The impacts of climate change on the ocean and cryosphere will produce changes in the next decades some of which are already inevitable and irreversible”, Simona Masina underlines. “The intensity of these events will increase under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. It is essential to take into consideration solutions that address such intensification, including measures and initiatives that facilitate risk management of extreme events such as floods, droughts and fires, as well as adverse impacts on fisheries, health, agri-/aquaculture, and tourism.”
“The benefits of limiting global warming to the lowest possible level are highlighted in the report”, says Dorotea Iovino. “The most important message we can take from this report is that scientific knowledge together with local knowledge, can and must be a guide to develop projects and investments while implementing adaptation and mitigation responses, with the aim to manage climate change risks and improve resilience.”
Mitigation (cutting greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation: in the future, these two approaches will have to go hand in hand to limit climate change and address those changes we can no longer avoid.
“These strategies – Momme Butenschön concludes – include solutions inspired by ecosystems which provide environmental, social and economic benefits. Some examples involve ecosystem restoration, such as seagrass meadows and coral reefs that can protect coastlines from storms, floods and erosion and host animal species, even providing benefits for fishing activities. Other examples concern the protection of ecosystems so as to protect key species and the sustainable management of resources.”
